When will be breakout of Bitcoin price after the forth halving?
Hello everyone, I’m back. We’re in an interesting period. Many people are nervous about Bitcoin’s price, and some believe we are in a bull market. Opinions are divided, and today I’ll share my analysis on Bitcoin’s price and potential breakout.
When in doubt, zoom out.
This approach can reduce anxiety, especially when fear is high. In investing, fear often comes from uncertainty and things not going as planned.
I’ve analyzed a monthly candle chart
Zooming out to see if the price is reversing or hitting a resistance zone. To me, it doesn’t look like we have bull market volatility yet. We can see this from the expansion of each monthly candle. I think we’re still far from “FOMO” (fear of missing out).
In my view, we should buy during bear market lows when the weekly RSI is oversold and again at breakout points. Historically, Bitcoin prices have taken 2 to 15 weeks after a halving to break out, retest, and surge. This time, it might take longer, and here’s why.
Why this time might take longer to break out.
I estimate it could take up to 35 Weeks for a reversal and breakout. I expect the price to fluctuate significantly. However, I’ll be watching to see if the weekly price stays above the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) line. Currently, we’re below the EMA line, but if the weekly candle closes above it, the price could shoot upwards. Conversely, if it closes below, it could be a sign that the price will drop further. But anyway even it drop. I’m not really concern about it and to me this it will be consolidation period not the down turn winter.
PS. In next blog post I will write about why this is cant not the beginning of down side.
Conclusion
I’ll be keeping an eye on this 35-week time frame. If the price breaks out within this range, momentum could turn super bullish. If not, the price could either drop or move ranging sideways. The best case, in my opinion, is if the price moves sideways, creating a large trading zone that could become a new support line. This support could be significant, especially with institutions and Spot ETFs entering the Bitcoin market.
